The CIA has alerted Italy, Spain, and France to the risk of drone strikes by Russia, according to intelligence sources from Lithuania. The warning suggests these attacks could serve as retaliation for the three countries’ backing of Ukraine since Moscow’s 2022 invasion. Russian forces might deploy drones from the Mediterranean, hiding them in shipping containers before reassembling them at sea to avoid early detection. This approach minimizes the chance of sparking a full NATO response, as previous limited actions, mostly cyber operations, have so far failed to draw direct military retaliation. Should such strikes occur, they would represent a major shift in the conflict’s tactics.
The Gerbera drone emerges as the most probable weapon in these threats. Unlike the larger Shahed or Geran models, this variant measures roughly two meters in length and 2.5 meters in width, with a total weight of 18 kilograms. It can cover distances up to 600 kilometers at speeds of 160 km/h, and its modular construction allows for easy disassembly and transport. Launched from 200 to 300 kilometers offshore, the drone can reach its target in about 90 minutes. Though its five-kilogram payload lacks the destructive power to collapse buildings, it could still start fires or disrupt essential infrastructure. Airports are expected to be primary objectives.
Russian authorities regard European arms shipments to Ukraine as equivalent to direct involvement in the war. The potential timing of these strikes coincides with the 2027 elections in Italy, Spain, and France, where pro-Russian political groups might leverage public fears to advocate for reduced military support for Kyiv. The CIA’s assessment highlights Russia’s intent to use indirect methods to sway political decisions without engaging in open hostilities.
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Russia’s past drone campaigns in Ukraine have shown variable success, primarily focusing on energy networks and military installations. While these operations have not yet provoked NATO intervention, attacks on European allies could force a reevaluation of deterrence policies. The uncertainty surrounding drone warfare increases the danger of unintended escalation, given how unpredictable such operations can be.
European defense authorities have yet to verify the CIA’s findings, but the warning has already triggered reviews of air defense capabilities in southern Europe. Current efforts concentrate on improving detection and interception of low-altitude drones, particularly those originating from maritime locations.